Countries to benefit from $100 trillion global economic expansion

Certain nations appear well positioned to benefit from what is expected to be a major expansion in the world economy over the next quarter century.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s economies reached $120 trillion in 2025, a figure Gallup has forecast could rise to about $220 trillion by the year 2050.

Why It Matters

In the immediate future, the global economic outlook has been complicated by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which began on February 28. Iran responded to American and Israeli strikes by blocking transits in the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of global oil passes—sending prices soaring and threatening nations worldwide with supply shortages and economic slowdowns.

What To Know

According to the Gallup report, the U.S. represents about 26 percent of global GDP, followed by the European Union and China at 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

Gallup Chairman and CEO Jim Clifton noted that, in the early 21st century, many economists and political scientists predicted that the Chinese economy was poised to overtake that of the U.S. These predictions became commonplace following its incorporation into the World Trade Organization in 2001, but while China made significant strides, it failed to close the gap with the U.S., which increasingly shifted toward a focus on services, technology and high‑value innovations.

“The U.S. economy was not routed by China, as literally every thought leader predicted, including every well-meaning U.S., Chinese, EU and world economist,” he wrote. “This was one of the biggest misreads by economists of the past 100 years. Nobody talks about it, but it helps make a case that the future is very hard to predict.”

Clifton said certain indicators gave hints as to which countries might benefit from the $100 trillion in “new economic energy” that is expected to “rain down across all countries worldwide” over the next 25 years.

According to analysis Gallup included in its 2026 annual report, the U.S. leads the way in the first measure, dubbed “gross domestic ambition,” with 32 percent of its workers being “part of a culture of ambition and engagement that drives innovation, growth and competitiveness.” This compares to a global average of about 20 percent, with India trailing the U.S. among major economies at 23 percent.

According to Gallup, the U.S. also houses 55 percent of the world’s “unicorns”—billion-dollar startups—which it said signals “rising economic momentum” and “a concentration of entrepreneurial energy.”

Gross domestic payroll to population is the percentage of the population aged 15 or older that is employed for at least 30 hours a week, a measure of those in “real employment” Gallup says represents the share “thriving” within a given country. Only about 27 percent of the world is in “real employment,” it found, and among the world’s bigger economies, the U.S. also leads the way at 45 percent, followed by Japan at 44 percent.

The third “pearl” in Gallup’s analysis was termed “gross domestic thriving,” an assessment of how people “believe their lives are going today and how hopeful they feel about tomorrow.” Based on surveys fielded across 140 countries, Gallup found that 35 percent of people globally would rate their current situation at seven or higher out of 10 and their future life at eight or higher.

Forty-nine percent of U.S. respondents met this threshold, compared with 43 percent in the EU—though American scores have slid in recent years while European optimism has been on the rise.

“These three measures are leading indicators for economic growth,” Gallup wrote in its annual report.

In the coming months, however, focus is likely to remain on how economies can weather the fallout from the war in the Middle East.

“Downside risks dominate the outlook,” the IMF wrote in a recent report, noting that several potential variables could affect worldwide GDP over the coming months and years.

“A longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could significantly weaken growth and destabilize financial markets,” it said. “Elevated public debt and eroding institutional credibility further heighten vulnerabilities. At the same time, activity could be lifted if productivity gains from AI materialize more rapidly or trade tensions ease on a sustained basis.”

What Happens Next

On Tuesday, the IMF published an updated outlook, warning that the global economy is now at risk of a recession due to the war.

The organization had previously predicted that the economy would grow by 3.4 percent in 2026, but it has lowered its baseline forecast to 3.1 percent alongside 4.4 percent inflation, assuming “a short-lived conflict.”

However, it warned that should the war extend into next year—with a continuous blockade of the Hormuz Strait and further damage to the region’s energy infrastructure—this could slow growth to 2 percent and drive inflation to 6 percent.