Two months’ worth of rain to fall in Texas within days
Southeast Texas could see up to two months’ worth of rain in just days as a slow-moving system stalls over the region beginning Wednesday.
Meteorologists warn that the prolonged storm could bring widespread flooding, especially in Houston and nearby flood-prone areas.
The system is being fueled by a strengthening El Niño pattern, raising concern that this could be an early preview of a wetter season ahead.
Here’s how much rain could fall—and who’s most at risk.
How Much Rain Could Fall in Texas?
- 8–12 inches in Port Arthur and surrounding areas
- Up to a foot possible in parts of Southeast Texas
- Enough to exceed May + June averages combined in some areas
Why Houston Could Be Hit Hardest
- The greater metropolitan area is home to more than 7 million people.
- Already above May average (5.18 vs 5.01)
- June average ~6 inches
When the Rain Starts—and How Long It Lasts
- Begins Wednesday
- Continues through next Thursday
The rain is expected to begin in East Texas on Wednesday and will persist through next Thursday as the system stalls and produces “relentless rain,” a video shared by WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said.
“Drought to Deluge! Developing El Niño gives us an early preview of the pattern for late fall and winter. A strong Subtropical Jetstream will hover near Texas, Louisiana and the lower MS Valley through the next 1-2 weeks,” Berardelli posted on X on Tuesday. “Rainfall may total a foot plus in spots in the next 10 days with more possible after that. Medium range models can underestimate the rainfall. This jet is powered by a record warm Eastern Pacific, associated with the developing El Niño.”
Where Flooding Risk Is Highest
If the system develops as projected, parts of East and Southeast Texas could be hit hardest, with impacts potentially extending into neighboring Louisiana. Flash flooding could pose the most immediate threat, especially in urban areas and locations with poor drainage.
- Southeast Texas (including Houston): highest totals, prolonged rain
- Texas–Louisiana border (Port Arthur): 8–12 inches
- Western Louisiana: up to 8 inches, locally higher
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Lake Charles said the heaviest rain is expected to fall from Southeast Texas into central Louisiana, but warned that even areas expecting lower totals could still see flash flooding.
Why This Type of Rain Is More Dangerous
- Rain lasts for days, not hours
- Soil becomes saturated, equating to more runoff
- Rivers can keep rising even after the rain stops
Lake Conroe is already about 97 percent full, and Lake Houston is at capacity, meaning additional rainfall could quickly increase downstream flooding risk.
What’s Driving the Storm System
- 82 percent chance El Niño develops (May–July)
- Strong subtropical jet bringing moisture into TX/LA
- 96 percent chance it continues into winter
Looking further ahead, Berardelli said the rainy weather could then shift further east into Florida.
“But it’s too early to know,” he said in the post. “This active subtropical jet pattern is a preview of the stormy El Niño setup late fall into winter for the Southeast.”
What to Watch Next
- Rainfall totals are likely to shift over the coming days
- Flood watches could be issued as the system develops
- Storm may expand east toward Florida afterward
- Officials urge residents to monitor local alerts
